Forgot the Forgotten. We are cursed with short-term memories. Our 86 billion neurons retain information, on average, for just 30 days. What happened last month will likely be forgotten by next month.

Hermann Ebbinghaus, the renowned German psychologist, discovered that humans forget 80% of newly learned information within a month. It’s astonishing how fast memory fades — just like whatever happened seven months ago, now reduced to a blur.

The Price of Hubris. On November 5th last year, Trump declared a historic comeback, becoming the 17th U.S. President. Markets soared. Crypto roared. The S&P 500 and Bitcoin raced neck-and-neck, hitting all-time highs — 6,100 and 109,000, respectively.

FOMO and fear of missing out drove capital into a frenzy. AI and crypto were crowned as proxies for future value, emboldened by Trump’s narrative of innovation and dominance. SoftBank pledged $100 billion, with Masayoshi Son aligning himself with Trump — seeking not only extraordinary returns, but also the coveted “brilliant guy” status.

But price is not value. And while price can seduce, value is elusive — especially when pension funds follow the mania. The State of Wisconsin allocated $155 million to BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF. Michigan followed with $12.9 million into an Ethereum ETF.

In the pursuit of return, we’d do well to remember Soros’ timeless warning: “Optimum return is achieved by anticipating the right tail — and exiting before the left tail arrives.” But… can we?

The Bullish Crowd.  Traditional players returned in force. Bankers were exuberant. Credit and equity markets ignited. Bond spreads shrank to their lowest levels since 1998. Even passive investors turned aggressive. ETF inflows surged to $1.5 trillion, riding the Trump rally.

When markets double or triple while fundamentals stay unchanged — that’s a bubble. Yet after such extremes, analysts go procyclical. Everything feels like a tailwind. Consensus? A 15% market gain. Everyone agrees. Everyone jumps in. Until another shock arrives: trade war.

Suddenly, the same voice behind MAGA pivots the narrative. The mood shifts. The short-term euphoria collapses under new headlines. What was promised as an inflationary boom turns into a geopolitical whiplash.

Cognitive Bias.  Our minds are disoriented. Are we being tricked by our own thinking? As Daniel Kahneman wrote, we live between System 1 (fast, emotional) and System 2 (slow, rational). But where is System 2 when it matters most?

Second-level thinking tries to challenge the first — but deeper insights often only arrive in hindsight. The soaring prices weren’t always backed by fundamentals. They were powered by illusionary growth. Our minds deceived us.

Perhaps the bull and bear aren’t just market cycles. Perhaps they’re cognitive illusions. Like the market, our mind is not efficient.

In the end, it’s not what you think. Not who they think. Not even why we think. We are victims of our own minds. And when groupthink takes over? Rule No. 1: Step away.
Rule No. 2: Step away faster. Rule No. 3: Just stay away from the crowd.